Updated on Tuesday 02 June 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 105165 (+784) 1811360 (+21188) 458231 (+13473) 1247964 (+6931)
United Kingdom 39127 (+556) 277736 (+1580) 1221 (+31) 237388 (+993)
Italy 33475 (+60) 233197 (+200) 158355 (+848) 41367 (-708)
Brazil 29937 (+623) 526447 (+11598) 211080 (+4525) 285430 (+6450)
France 28836 (+31) 189348 (+339) 68558 (+85) 91954 (+223)
Spain 27127 (+0) 239638 (+159) 150376 (+0) 62135 (+159)
Mexico 10167 (+237) 93435 (+2771) 66965 (+3193) 16303 (-659)
Belgium 9486 (+19) 58517 (+136) 15919 (+32) 33112 (+85)
Germany 8555 (+15) 183594 (+184) 165632 (+280) 9407 (-111)
Iran 7878 (+81) 154445 (+2979) 121004 (+2156) 25563 (+742)
Canada 7404 (+30) 93288 (+809) 50091 (+878) 35793 (-99)
Netherlands 5981 (+6) 46749 (+104) 179 (+1) 40589 (+97)
India 5608 (+200) 198370 (+7761) 95754 (+3902) 97008 (+3659)
Russia 4849 (+156) 414328 (+8485) 175514 (+3631) 233965 (+4698)
China 4638 (+0) 84154 (+8) 79398 (+9) 118 (-1)
Peru 4634 (+128) 170039 (+5563) 68507 (+1299) 96898 (+4136)
Turkey 4563 (+23) 164769 (+827) 128947 (+974) 31259 (-170)
Sweden 4403 (+8) 37814 (+272) 4971 (+0) 28440 (+264)
Ecuador 3358 (+0) 39098 (+0) 19592 (+0) 16148 (+0)
Switzerland 1920 (+0) 30871 (+9) 28500 (+0) 451 (+9)
Ireland 1650 (-2) 25062 (+72) 22089 (+0) 1323 (+74)
Indonesia 1641 (+28) 26940 (+467) 7637 (+329) 17662 (+110)
Pakistan 1543 (+60) 72460 (+2964) 26083 (+812) 44834 (+2092)
Portugal 1424 (+14) 32700 (+200) 19552 (+143) 11724 (+43)
Romania 1276 (+10) 19398 (+141) 13426 (+170) 4696 (-39)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 370921 (+3524) 6182038 (+99238) 2616611 (+54671)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 369122 ( +2410) 6191048 ( +84545) 2650276 ( +63955)
Wed 03 June 2020 371390 ( +2267) 6273048 ( +82000) 2714614 ( +64338)
Thu 04 June 2020 373519 ( +2129) 6352409 ( +79362) 2779300 ( +64686)
Fri 05 June 2020 375516 ( +1997) 6429058 ( +76649) 2844300 ( +64999)
Sat 06 June 2020 377386 ( +1870) 6502937 ( +73880) 2909575 ( +65276)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 4638 (+0) 84154 (+8) 79398 (+9)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84076 ( +0) 78344 ( +0)
Wed 03 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84077 ( +0) 78344 ( +0)
Thu 04 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84077 ( +0) 78344 ( +0)
Fri 05 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84077 ( +0) 78344 ( +0)
Sat 06 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84077 ( +0) 78344 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 27127 (+0) 239638 (+159) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 27717 ( +9) 235689 ( +100) 155994 ( +487)
Wed 03 June 2020 27725 ( +8) 235779 ( +91) 156453 ( +458)
Thu 04 June 2020 27732 ( +7) 235862 ( +82) 156884 ( +431)
Fri 05 June 2020 27738 ( +6) 235936 ( +75) 157290 ( +406)
Sat 06 June 2020 27743 ( +5) 236004 ( +67) 157671 ( +382)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 33475 (+60) 233197 (+200) 158355 (+848)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 33148 ( +34) 230924 ( +141) 157543 ( +1459)
Wed 03 June 2020 33180 ( +32) 231052 ( +129) 158933 ( +1389)
Thu 04 June 2020 33209 ( +29) 231169 ( +117) 160254 ( +1321)
Fri 05 June 2020 33235 ( +26) 231276 ( +107) 161509 ( +1255)
Sat 06 June 2020 33259 ( +24) 231374 ( +97) 162701 ( +1192)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 39127 (+556) 277736 (+1580) 1221 (+31)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 38447 ( +108) 269503 ( +765) 1524 ( +39)
Wed 03 June 2020 38545 ( +99) 270209 ( +706) 1564 ( +40)
Thu 04 June 2020 38635 ( +90) 270859 ( +650) 1605 ( +41)
Fri 05 June 2020 38718 ( +82) 271458 ( +599) 1647 ( +42)
Sat 06 June 2020 38792 ( +75) 272010 ( +552) 1690 ( +43)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 105165 (+784) 1811360 (+21188) 458231 (+13473)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 104216 ( +476) 1787974 ( +11720) 449974 ( +5940)
Wed 03 June 2020 104653 ( +437) 1798967 ( +10992) 454967 ( +4993)
Thu 04 June 2020 105054 ( +401) 1809261 ( +10294) 459129 ( +4162)
Fri 05 June 2020 105422 ( +368) 1818888 ( +9627) 462575 ( +3446)
Sat 06 June 2020 105759 ( +337) 1827879 ( +8991) 465412 ( +2837)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 28836 (+31) 189348 (+339) 68558 (+85)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 27794 ( +5) 184929 ( +76) 68140 ( +216)
Wed 03 June 2020 27799 ( +5) 184997 ( +68) 68339 ( +199)
Thu 04 June 2020 27803 ( +4) 185058 ( +61) 68523 ( +184)
Fri 05 June 2020 27806 ( +4) 185112 ( +54) 68692 ( +169)
Sat 06 June 2020 27809 ( +3) 185160 ( +48) 68847 ( +155)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 8555 (+15) 183594 (+184) 165632 (+280)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 8475 ( +11) 181659 ( +122) 163907 ( +231)
Wed 03 June 2020 8485 ( +10) 181770 ( +111) 164115 ( +207)
Thu 04 June 2020 8494 ( +9) 181871 ( +101) 164301 ( +186)
Fri 05 June 2020 8502 ( +8) 181963 ( +92) 164468 ( +168)
Sat 06 June 2020 8510 ( +7) 182047 ( +84) 164619 ( +150)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 5981 (+6) 46749 (+104) 179 (+1)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 5906 ( +4) 45657 ( +27) 239 ( +7)
Wed 03 June 2020 5910 ( +4) 45681 ( +25) 246 ( +7)
Thu 04 June 2020 5914 ( +4) 45704 ( +22) 253 ( +7)
Fri 05 June 2020 5917 ( +3) 45724 ( +20) 261 ( +8)
Sat 06 June 2020 5920 ( +3) 45742 ( +18) 269 ( +8)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 9486 (+19) 58517 (+136) 15919 (+32)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 9151 ( +3) 56356 ( +25) 15703 ( +32)
Wed 03 June 2020 9154 ( +2) 56378 ( +23) 15732 ( +29)
Thu 04 June 2020 9156 ( +2) 56399 ( +20) 15758 ( +26)
Fri 05 June 2020 9158 ( +2) 56417 ( +18) 15781 ( +24)
Sat 06 June 2020 9159 ( +2) 56433 ( +16) 15803 ( +21)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 4403 (+8) 37814 (+272) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 4426 ( +31) 37973 ( +404) 5028 ( +0)
Wed 03 June 2020 4455 ( +29) 38361 ( +388) 5028 ( +0)
Thu 04 June 2020 4482 ( +27) 38734 ( +373) 5028 ( +0)
Fri 05 June 2020 4506 ( +25) 39091 ( +357) 5028 ( +0)
Sat 06 June 2020 4529 ( +23) 39433 ( +342) 5028 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 1074 (+10) 24165 (+379) 11449 (+178)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 1072 ( +6) 24319 ( +282) 11205 ( +147)
Wed 03 June 2020 1078 ( +6) 24588 ( +270) 11343 ( +138)
Thu 04 June 2020 1083 ( +6) 24846 ( +257) 11471 ( +128)
Fri 05 June 2020 1089 ( +5) 25091 ( +245) 11590 ( +119)
Sat 06 June 2020 1094 ( +5) 25324 ( +233) 11701 ( +111)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 1920 (+0) 30871 (+9) 28500 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 1909 ( +0) 30606 ( +2) 28210 ( +12)
Wed 03 June 2020 1909 ( +0) 30608 ( +2) 28220 ( +11)
Thu 04 June 2020 1910 ( +0) 30609 ( +1) 28230 ( +9)
Fri 05 June 2020 1910 ( +0) 30611 ( +1) 28238 ( +8)
Sat 06 June 2020 1910 ( +0) 30612 ( +1) 28246 ( +7)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 29937 (+623) 526447 (+11598) 211080 (+4525)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 30919 ( +827) 552567 ( +22675) 222620 ( +9023)
Wed 03 June 2020 31723 ( +803) 575460 ( +22893) 231716 ( +9096)
Thu 04 June 2020 32501 ( +778) 598512 ( +23053) 240861 ( +9145)
Fri 05 June 2020 33251 ( +751) 621664 ( +23152) 250031 ( +9170)
Sat 06 June 2020 33974 ( +723) 644855 ( +23190) 259201 ( +9170)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 01 June 2020 7878 (+81) 154445 (+2979) 121004 (+2156)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 7728 ( +26) 155446 ( +2063) 113527 ( +713)
Wed 03 June 2020 7753 ( +25) 157452 ( +2006) 114216 ( +689)
Thu 04 June 2020 7776 ( +23) 159396 ( +1944) 114881 ( +665)
Fri 05 June 2020 7798 ( +22) 161273 ( +1878) 115523 ( +642)
Sat 06 June 2020 7819 ( +21) 163082 ( +1808) 116143 ( +620)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.